PORT CLYDE — This is not their first rodeo, you think, as you listen to the procession of lobster boats leaving the harbor one after the other beginning when the sky is still a dull gray wash on the horizon at 4 a.m. Their signatures are a series of small wakes trailing aft in the slate-still water as the diesel engines slowly come up to temperature and vermillion streaks begin painting the sky. Lobster boats leave their harbors with a low thrum and return with a full-throated roar each day of summer hauling. By the time the rest of the island wakes up each morning, the harbor is nearly a ghost town.

Still fresh in everyone’s mind in Lobsterville is last year’s nightmarish confluence of unprecedented events — eerily warm water, shedders showing up almost simultaneously everywhere along the coast, and monstrous early landings that choked processors unequipped to handle the volume or to find enough sunbaked tourists to sell the huge quantities of soft-shelled lobsters. The market responded as all markets do when supply vastly exceeds demand: The price went into free fall.

This year, glory be, the lobster season has been more normal, with shedders beginning to show up first in southern Maine in June, then proceeding apace through Casco Bay and the Midcoast before they showed up Downeast. But supply still exceeds demand and prices are abysmally low by recent standards. The good news is there are a lot of lobsters; the bad news is that there are a lot of lobsters.

The Gulf of Maine is the only body of water off the Atlantic and Pacific coasts of the United States where oceanographic currents circle in a gyre — literally a sea within a sea. Bottom currents flow into the Gulf of Maine through a deep cut called Northeast Channel and leave via the Great South Channel off Nantucket. But much of the Gulf of Maine cycles in a counterclockwise gyre circulating nutrient rich waters over shallow banks and into deep-water basins. In the summer, surface waters warm this “sea within a sea;” the warmer the summer the deeper and more persistent this warm cap.

Biology loves warmth, up to a point. Everyone and everything has their sweet spot where they thrive. Most of us start slowing down when temperatures reach the mid 80s; we swoon in 90-plus temperatures and barely function when the mercury crests the century mark. In the spring, lobsters hardly move until temperatures reach 45-47 degrees (F.); baby lobsters floating in the water head for the bottom when water temperatures hit the low-to-mid 60s. Seawater temperatures between 78-80 degrees begin to be lethal for adult lobsters. For the last several years most of the water column off the Rhode Island and in Long Island Sound have routinely reached the 78-80 degree mark and the lobster fishery there has basically collapsed.

During the past quarter of a century, everything that humans have done in and to the Gulf of Maine has increased the habitat for lobsters. First we fished out their main predator — the codfish; then we fished out the urchins, which feed on kelps, which have now rebounded so prolifically that we have increased the habitat, where lobsters can safely shed their shells. And, whether you believe humans are responsible or not, the waters of the Gulf of Maine have recently warmed at a rate almost 10 times as fast as they warmed during the previous 40 years. The warmer waters have greatly expanded the habitat where baby lobsters settle, especially in eastern Maine and increased the rate at which younger female lobsters grow and reproduce.

All of these factors have led to the extraordinary abundance of lobsters — and the resulting decline in prices. Many fishermen, especially in eastern Maine where the increased lobster abundance is most concentrated, are catching many more lobsters and can make up for the reduced prices to some extent through increased landings. But from the Midcoast southwestward to the New Hampshire border, more and more areas are no longer optimal for lobsters.  Lobstermen there are beginning to experience the worst of both worlds — falling prices and flat or declining catches. Not a pretty picture at the lobster rodeo.

 To make matters worse, there are little bacteria in the water that causes a nasty shell disease in lobsters. It used to be very rare, but is now prevalent in southern New England. In Rhode Island, almost a third of landed lobsters have the shell disease. The lobsters end up looking as if they had been splashed with acid, leaving them pockmarked with abscesses, which makes them unsalable on the fresh market.

For reasons no one really understands lobster shell disease is not only increasing, but also moving north. A fisherman friend in Vinalhaven said last year, he might see one or two lobsters with shell disease per week; this year, he sees 12 to 14 a day. Lobster shell disease is even more prevalent in southern Maine and Casco Bay. Whatever else may be contributing to the prevalence of shell disease, warmer waters and higher lobster densities are undoubtedly implicated.

Lobstermen may not be able to do much about the warming trend in the Gulf of Maine, but two different responses in completely opposite directions have emerged to the price issue. The Maine Lobsterman’s Association and other industry leaders promoted a bill to reorganize and greatly increase Maine’s lobster marketing efforts. The premise of this legislation is that a $300 million industry should spend more than a tenth of one percent of its revenue promoting its product. Instead, a marketing budget based on investing one percent of the value of landings — $3 million — is common in other seafood marketing programs around the country. A graduated fee on lobster licenses will enable the lobster industry to test whether increased targeted marketing program can increase the boat price.

At the other end of the spectrum is an effort to unionize lobstermen that is being promoted by other industry participants. Although the captains of lobster boats are forbidden by law from joining a union, the idea has attracted some interest among sternmen, who are being asked to pay $600 per year to join the union. It is a little hard to see how unionizing sternmen is going to make an impact on the price of lobsters, but that’s what makes gambling fun to some people.

One thing, however, has not changed at the lobster rodeo: Ask two different lobstermen their opinion and you will get at least three different answers.

Philip Conkling is the founder of the Island Institute. Additional writings are available at www.conklingassociates.com

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